Monday, August 11, 2008
What started as a calculated gamble eventually became a high stakes of defending a nation against imminent invasion. With the Beijing Olympics at the forefront of eveyone's mind, including politicians, Georgia launched a quick strike against South Ossetia, a breakaway region.
What they didnt count upon was the rapid mobilisation of Russian troops surging into Ossetia. Apparently, Russian forces are now advancing well beyond the disputed regions into Georgian territories, pushing both nations closer to the brink of a real war.
What are the intentions of the Russians? Lets take a look:
1) Putin, the true power in the Kremlin has always haboured for a return to the might of the USSR. Georgia, Ukraine and the former Soviet satellites are somehow still viewed by the Russians as their 'backyard'. Cold War mentality prevails?
2) With the election of a western( particular US)-educated President, the Kremlin has been watching events unfolding-against their favour as the independent nation sought early membership into NATO, which Kremlin hotly disputes.
3) The separatists are inclined for a reunion with north Ossetia which is under Russian control. Perhaps by instigating these separatists, Russia hopes for an opening such as the current crisis to advance their ambitions of re-establishing influence in Georgia?
4) Georgia is a key 'southern energy corridor' which exports oil while bypassing Russia. this ensures a steady stream of oil to the West and US. By bypassing Russia, Russia's control over the oil ( and political leverage) affected, as seen when it used economics in the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.
to be continued
